A model on charter rate prediction in container shipping

Tuzcuoğlu, Tolga; Gençer, Hüseyin

A model on charter rate prediction in container shipping

dc.contributor.author	Tuzcuoğlu, Tolga
dc.contributor.author	Gençer, Hüseyin
dc.date.accessioned	2024-12-06T15:40:05Z
dc.date.available	2024-12-06T15:40:05Z
dc.date.issued	2023
dc.department	TAÜ, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İşletme Bölümü	en_US
dc.description.abstract	The maritime industry has witnessed numerous challenges in recent years after the global pandemic, primarily characterized by sharp fluctuations in the daily charter rates. Considering an unpredictable business environment, this study aims to suggest a financial forecasting model on charter rates, creating added value for the stakeholders of the maritime trade business. The empirical analysis utilized the data from the Clarksons Research Portal, which encompassed 7,409 charter rental transactions of container ships from 01.01.2018 to 10.03.2023. After examining seven different linear and ensemble regressions, it was revealed that the XGBoost regressor resulted in the least RMSE value of 0.1833 with an R2 of 0.9015. The selected predictors were the TEU, container fixture type, charter time, charter time multiplied by TEU, ship age, laycan year, and laycan month, respectively. In addition to coping with the limitations of linear regression, the model revealed that the laycan years, charter time, and charter time multiplied with TEU were the essential variables in charter rate prediction. As a result, the model developed in the study can be used as an important decision support tool for stakeholders in the container shipping industry.
dc.identifier.citation	Tuzcuoğlu, T., Gençer, H. (2023). A model on charter rate prediction in container shipping. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics, 10 (3), 77-85.
dc.identifier.doi	10.30897/ijegeo.1345053
dc.identifier.endpage	85	en_US
dc.identifier.issue	3	en_US
dc.identifier.startpage	77	en_US
dc.identifier.trdizinid	1269288
dc.identifier.uri	https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/1269288/a-model-on-charter-rate-prediction-in-container-shipping
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12846/1455
dc.identifier.volume	10	en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynak	TR-Dizin
dc.language.iso	en
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics
dc.relation.publicationcategory	Makale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	Forecasting	en_US
dc.subject	Container shipping	en_US
dc.subject	Charter market	en_US
dc.subject	Ensemble regression	en_US
dc.subject	Ship financing strategy	en_US
dc.title	A model on charter rate prediction in container shipping
dc.type	Article