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    The effect of financial markets on the return decision of Turkish migrants
    (Türk-Alman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2023) Tekin, Elif
    In this study we focus on temporary migrations who have the decision to return home country and their duration period. Part of temporary migrant groups are also mobile between Turkey and Germany for a long while. we explore the migration durations of Turkish migrations in the sample with respect to financial indicators and observe migrants’ decision making process using the Socio-Economic Panel data (SOEP) and external financial data source such as blue-chip indexes; BIST 30 and DAX from 1997 to 2017 for Turkey as an origin country and Germany as a host country. In the study, as an econometric model, linear fixed effects and linear fixed effect probability model have been used. To our knowledge, this is the first study on return decision to use the stock exchange rate involves financial circumstances of home country but also financial circumstances of host country. The results indicate that changes in the stock exchange index prices of the home country are generally positively associated with the desired immigrant duration for Turkish migrants. So, we observe that migrants consider their home countries as natural comparators, and as a result, their motivation to return decreases six months with each increase %10 in in the previous day’s price of the BIST 30 Index level, on average. According to alternative estimation of linear fixed effect probability model, 10% increase in home country stock prices corresponds to a 2.92% lower probability of returning. These results do not apply for host country of index. These results are robust with respect to estimators and sample selection. We discussed the role of duration of stay and financial crises on the relationship between financial indices in the home country and return decisions of migrants.