Yazar "Kunst, Robert M." seçeneğine göre listele

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    Competing specifications of the gravity equation: a three-way model, bilateral interaction effects, or a dynamic gravity model with time-varying country effects?
    (Physica-Verlag Gmbh & Co, 2014) Nuroğlu, Elif; Kunst, Robert M.
    We investigate bilateral trade flows across the EU-15 countries from 1962 to 2003 by different specifications of the gravity model. We augment the basic gravity model with population and exchange rate variables, and then include time-varying country fixed effects, to account for Anderson and van Wincoop (Am Econ Rev 93(1):170-192, 2003) multilateral resistance terms. Then, following the previous theoretical derivations of the gravity model in the presence of panel data in a dynamic setting we change the specification of our gravity model. We compare the results of different specifications showing the improvement in each case. We claim the comparative superiority of the dynamic gravity model with time-varying exporter and importer fixed effects due to its higher explanatory power. Finally, we compare out-of-sample forecasting performance of different specifications of the gravity model.
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    Effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach
    (2018) Nuroğlu, Elif; Kunst, Robert M.
    The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade fl ows by using two different approaches, the panel data analysis and fuzzy logic, and to compare the results. To a panel with the cross section dimension of 91 pairs of EU15 countries and with time ranging from 1964 to 2003, an extended gravity model of trade is applied in order to determine the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade fl ows of EU15 countries. The estimated impact is clearly negative, which indicates that exchange rate volatility has a negative infl uence on bilateral trade fl ows. Then, this traditional panel approach is contrasted with an alternative investigation based on fuzzy logic. The key elements of the fuzzy approach are to set fuzzy decision rules and to assign membership functions to the fuzzy sets intuitively based on experience. Both approaches yield very similar results and fuzzy approach is recommended to be used as a complement to statistical methods.