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    Seyhan Havzası’nda düşük akımların analizi
    (Balıkesir Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2025) Baysal, Selman; Yılmaz, Selahattin Utku; Önöz, Bihrat; Kaçar, Furkan Sencer
    In this study low-flow analysis was conducted at various measurement stations within the Seyhan Basin. Low-flow frequency analysis was performed to estimate the drought risks in the short, medium, and long term using annually-averaged minimum discharge values corresponding to durations of d = 1, 7, 10, and 15 days. Low-flow estimates for different return periods were obtained using both two-parameter distributions, namely Log-Normal (LN2), Gamma (G2), Weibull (W2), Exponential (E2), Gumbel (GEV-I), and Logistic (L2), and three-parameter distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV-III), Log-Normal (LN3),Pearson Type III (P3), Log-Pearson Type III (LP3), and Generalized Logistic (GL3). The goodness-of-fit between the various probability distributions and observed time series was investigated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K–S) test. To observe trends in the low flows estimated by these distributions, various statistical tests were applied, including the Mann-Kendall (MK), Trend-Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW), and innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results obtained using measurements from six different stations indicate that the most accurate estimations for the Seyhan Basin were obtained using the P3, GEV-III, and LN3 distributions. At the designated significance level, a decreasing trend was observed at three stations. For the remaining stations where no statistically significant trend was identified, ITA tests revealed a negative trend. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the flow rates measured at these stations have substantially decreased, suggesting a potential drought risk in the region.